Nature Strikes Back? Really? Two charts to make us think.
Early on at the onset of the pandemic of our generation, nCovid-19 there was much talk about nature striking back at us as ‘revenge’ for all the harm that we have inflicted on her. It made me very uncomfortable as it seemed not only to misunderstand the nature of human existence on this planet, but also ignore the tremendous improvement in quality of life that we have had in modern societies.
It is not my contention that we are in anyway living in a sustainable manner, but I think we should certainly acknowledge that the human condition has been that for thousands of years we have been at the mercy of nature and only in the last ~ 100 years or so we have won for ourselves a certain amount of respite. For nature is not just cuddly pandas, deer with dewy eyes and radiant sunsets but nature is also smallpox, diphtheria, tuberculosis, famine, cold, floods, poisonous snakes and predators that see us as prey!
Two charts that brought home the point for me are shown above. The first one tracking the death rate in New York over the past couple of centuries. From a level of ~ 30 – 40 deaths / 1000 population in 1800 s, In the recent years we have averaged sub 10 deaths / 1000. For comparison the death rate in NY due to nCovid-19 has been ~ 19 / 1000. Imagine living with twice those levels. Day in and day out. On the chart you can see the spikes from smallpox, yellow pox, scarlet fever, diphtheria, cholera, typhoid and Spanish flu. The death rates due to such diseases dropped dramatically as by the 1930 s vaccines had been developed for all of those diseases.
The second chart is conceptually a corollary of the first. Plotted here is the life expectancy of people in different countries over long periods of time. The oldest data in this chart is for the UK which seems to have tracked the life expectancy of people right from 1500 onwards (caveat: data is estimated, not perfect but quite representative). From 1500 till about 1850 life expectancy hovered around late 30s with occasional dips taking it to even more abysmal levels. In India life expectancy was about 37 yrs. at the time of independence and in 2019 was about 68 yrs. More than doubled in the last 72 years. This dramatic improvement in life expectancy is a world-wide phenomenon. Led out of industrialization, increasing factor productivity, increased incomes, health, literacy, harnessing energy sources on the planet etc. etc. – in short modern life. A big part of the improvement is modern medicine - germ theory, improved understanding of what causes diseases and how they spread, invention of vaccines and anti-biotics, immunization programs and huge investments in public health.
Lest someone turn around and say, the data from NY is that of a dense city more conducive to the spread of diseases and in villages people lived healthier (and longer) lives. The data for the UK is for the whole country – urban and rural. Modern estimates of life expectancy of people in prehistoric / aboriginal societies are in a similar range 30 – 40 years. Anthropologists working with tribes that have survived till modern times have come to a similar conclusion and have in addition described an abundant range of dangers that plague tribal societies and lead to death – viz. environmental hazards, human violence, infectious & parasitic diseases and starvation. An illustrative list[i] of environmental hazards – poisonous snakes, jaguars, treefall, falling from tree, infected insect bites and thorn scratches, fire, drowning, exposure, cut by axe and poisoned arrows!
So, probably safe to say that on this side of garden of Eden there hasn’t been much experience of man joyously living in harmony with nature. For nature is not just cuddly pandas, deer with dewy eyes and radiant sunsets ….
I hope I am right on this, whatever happens there is more than a fair chance that the nCovid-19 pandemic will not last as long as the Spanish flu (~ 2 years) and treatments and vaccines being developed will ensure that the death toll will remain a fraction of that of the Spanish Flu of 1918 estimated at ~ 50 million.
Living on this planet has always been a hazardous venture, Nature has been ‘striking’ at us for pretty much all of our individual and collective existence. Seems to me that as modern societies we have learnt to stay her hand a bit. We we have much to be proud of and grateful for.
Note: While it may seem that I have attributed ‘intentionality’ to nature for the purpose of countering the ‘nature strikes back’ argument, in ‘reality’ perhaps nature just is. We are very much a part of her and yet apart from her. Perhaps an eternal arms race amongst her many facets and constituents. Nature probably has no particular reason to favour us nor any particular reason to go after us.
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